India may raise fuel prices in November ahead of state elections, warns Oxford Economist

Oxford Economics has flagged the possibility of India moderately raising fuel prices in November, citing a narrow window available before crucial state elections scheduled for early 2025.

The economist noted that timing fuel price increases before major electoral contests is strategically significant, as such moves typically affect headline inflation figures and consumer sentiment. A price increase in November would provide some breathing room before voter-sensitive periods begin.

Should fuel prices be raised, the move could push inflation above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target range. The RBI has been managing inflation expectations amid volatile global energy markets and domestic demand pressures.