India's monsoon deficit widens to 12% as El Niño strengthens
El Niño conditions have strengthened further, raising concerns over India's monsoon rainfall performance, according to an ICICI Bank report. The Nino 3.4 index has risen to 2.72, higher than the 2.14 recorded during the corresponding period in 2015. Cumulative rainfall across India stood at 757 mm as of September 28, around 12 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA), with significant regional disparities. East India recorded the highest rainfall deficit at 25 per cent below the LPA, followed by South India at 24 per cent, while Northwest India and Central India recorded relatively smaller deficits of 6 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 received deficient rainfall, 18 recorded normal rainfall and one reported excess rainfall. Between September 1 and 28, all-India rainfall was 5 per cent below the LPA, though a recent improvement in rainfall has helped narrow the overall deficit. The report noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has entered the positive zone at 0.76, which could partly offset the adverse impact of El Niño in the coming days.
The rainfall deficit has coincided with lower kharif sowing compared with last year. As of September 25, around 110.8 million hectares had been sown, down 1.2 per cent from 112.1 million hectares during the corresponding period last year, though the area sown stood at 100.3 per cent of the normal level. Reservoir storage across the country remained below last year's level, with total live storage in 150 reservoirs standing at 130 billion cubic metres as of September 24, equivalent to 71 per cent of their combined capacity.
