Nomura predicts RBI will raise rates by only 50 basis points, bucking market expectations of 125 bps

Investment bank Nomura has predicted the Reserve Bank of India will raise interest rates by only 50 basis points in its upcoming decision, diverging sharply from market expectations of 125 basis points.

Nomura cited relatively contained underlying inflation despite a recent pickup in price pressures. The bank's forecast suggests the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach to monetary tightening than market participants are currently pricing in.

The divergence reflects differing assessments of inflation trajectory and RBI's policy stance ahead of the rate decision.