Global trade growth to slow to 4% in 2026, down from 4.4% in 2025: UNCTAD

Global trade is expected to expand at a slower pace in 2026, growing at 4%, compared to 4.4% in the current year, according to UNCTAD projections. The moderation reflects challenges in the global economic landscape despite higher trade values driven by energy price increases and export controls.

Trade tensions between China and the United States have led to a significant decline in bilateral commerce. Meanwhile, East Asia is diversifying its trade partnerships, expanding economic ties with both nations.

Developing economies, particularly India, are positioned to lead growth momentum in the coming year despite broader global economic slowdowns. These emerging markets are expected to be key drivers of international trade expansion in 2026.