WTO raises 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9% on AI expansion

The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, attributing the upgrade to expanding artificial intelligence adoption and strengthened supply chain resilience.

Asia is expected to lead export growth at 9.9%, signalling the region's continued dominance in global trade. The improved merchandise outlook reflects optimism about technological advancement and manufacturing stability across key markets.

However, the WTO simultaneously downgraded its services trade forecast. The revision stems from disruptions caused by the West Asia conflict, which has affected transport and travel sectors. The conflict-related pressures on logistics and tourism have tempered growth expectations in the services segment.

The mixed outlook underscores divergent trajectories across trade sectors, with goods benefiting from technological momentum while services face headwinds from geopolitical tensions.