IMD Predicts Drier-Than-Normal July After One of India's Driest Junes in 125 Years

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, forecasting monthly rainfall at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The outlook comes after the country experienced one of its driest Junes in more than a century, raising fresh concerns over agriculture, water availability and the ongoing kharif sowing season.

According to the IMD, rainfall during July is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, although some regions of northwest India, northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely."

The weather department has also forecast above-normal temperatures over large parts of the country, increasing the possibility of heat stress on crops during the crucial monsoon farming season. More than half of India's kharif cultivation depends entirely on monsoon rainfall, and delays in sowing have already been reported in several states.

Despite the overall dry outlook, the IMD has predicted rainfall across many parts of the country during the first seven to ten days of July.

July is traditionally the wettest month of the southwest monsoon, contributing around one-third of the season's total rainfall. Based on the 1971-2020 Long Period Average, the month normally receives about 280.4 mm of rainfall, making it critical for agricultural activity across India.

This year, however, June ended with only 99.5 mm of rainfall against the normal average of 165.3 mm, leaving the country with a rainfall deficit of around 40%. According to IMD data, it was the fifth-driest June recorded since 1901 and the driest June since 2014.

The weather department attributed the rainfall shortfall to a combination of unfavourable weather conditions, including the absence of low-pressure systems, the emergence of El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean, an unfavourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), all of which reduced the formation and movement of rain-bearing systems over the Indian subcontinent.

With the monsoon entering its most important phase, the latest forecast is expected to be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and water resource authorities, as rainfall during July plays a key role in determining agricultural output and reservoir levels across the country.