Understanding The Numbers: Who Can Win How Many Seats In The Rajya Sabha By-Elections
The Election Commission announced that by-elections for 12 Rajya Sabha seats will take place on September 3. These seats, across nine states, include ten that fell vacant after the MPs were elected to the Lok Sabha in June. Of these, seven were held by the BJP, two by the Congress, and one each by the RJD, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and Biju Janata Dal (BJD).
The Congress and RJD are key constituents of the INDIA bloc, while the BJD has distanced itself from the BJP. The BJP is expected to secure victories in seven states, but competitive battles are anticipated in Maharashtra?s two seats and Haryana?s one seat.
In Telangana, a seat fell vacant when former BRS MP K Keshava Rao resigned on July 5, and in Odisha, a seat became vacant after BJD MP Mamata Mohanta resigned on July 31 and joined the BJP. The remaining seats were vacated when MPs contested and won the Lok Sabha elections on June 4.
By-elections will also be held for two seats each in Assam, Bihar, and Maharashtra, and one seat each in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tripura. Notable vacancies include those left by Sarbananda Sonowal in Assam, Deepender Singh Hooda in Haryana, K C Venugopal in Rajasthan, and Union ministers Jyotiraditya Scindia and Piyush Goyal in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, respectively.
Currently, the BJP holds the largest number of seats in the Rajya Sabha with 90 MPs, followed by the Congress with 26. To retain the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) post, which is held by Congress?s Mallikarjun Kharge, a party needs at least 25 members. With Congress MPs Venugopal and Hooda vacating their seats, the party is just able to hold onto the LoP post in the Upper House.
While the Haryana seat will be closely contested, the Congress is expected to lose Venugopal?s seat in Rajasthan, where the BJP has a majority in the Assembly. The BJP candidates are expected to win easily in Assam (2 seats), Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Odisha (1 seat each). The BJP and RJD are likely to win one seat each in Bihar, considering the strength of the NDA and INDIA coalitions in the state Assembly. In Telangana, the Congress is expected to secure its sole seat following its victory in the 2023 Assembly polls.
However, the BJP faces a tough challenge in Maharashtra and Haryana. The current strength of the 90-member Haryana Assembly is 87. The BJP has 41 members, while the Congress has 29 after its Mullana MLA Varun Chaudhary was elected to the Lok Sabha from Ambala. The Dushyant Chautala-led JJP, with which the BJP severed ties before the Lok Sabha polls, has 10 MLAs. There are also five Independent legislators and one MLA each from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP).
The Congress hopes to muster the required numbers with the support of Opposition MLAs, but internal dynamics make this uncertain. In Maharashtra, both the BJP?s NDA allies?the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)?have shown dissatisfaction over not receiving cabinet berths in the new NDA government.
The Shiv Sena, which won seven Lok Sabha seats, is displeased because other NDA partners with fewer seats received cabinet positions. The NCP was offered a Minister of State (MoS) post, which it declined, seeking a cabinet position instead. The Shiv Sena received one MoS (independent charge) berth.
With these political intricacies at play, the by-elections on September 3 will be crucial in determining the strength and influence of various parties in the Rajya Sabha, especially ahead of the 2024 general elections.
