Monsoon set to retreat this weekend as El Niño intensifies, but Bay of Bengal could delay exit

The India Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon to begin its withdrawal by the weekend, with El Niño conditions driving the retreat. However, US forecasters are projecting an even quicker-than-normal exit from Indian territory.

The actual pace of withdrawal could face complications. An active Bay of Bengal, a potential boost from the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the possibility of a new weather system forming could all slow the monsoon's departure. These factors may create pockets of moisture and extend rainfall in some regions even as the broader retreat occurs.

The interplay between El Niño's drying influence and the Bay's lingering activity remains a key variable in determining the final timeline for the monsoon season's end.